Deterministic analysis identifies the least-cost mix of demand-side and supply-side resources that will meet need, given the set of static assumptions defined in the scenario or sensitivity. All scenarios and sensitivities will be analyzed using deterministic optimization analysis. The AURORA model is used for electric portfolio optimization and Sendout is utilized for the gas portfolio modeling. PSE will utilize the Plexos model to conduct analyses to evaluate reserve requirements such as ancillary services needed to support integration of intermittent generating resources.
Stochastic risk analysis deliberately varies the static inputs to the deterministic analysis, to test how the different portfolios developed in the deterministic analysis perform with regard to cost and risk across a wide range of potential future power prices, gas prices, hydro generation, wind generation, loads, and plant forced outages. The stochastic risk analysis will be used to evaluate wholesale market risk.