Consultation Update Details

Consultation Update #4

7/14/2020

Webinar 4: Demand-side resources | July 14, 2020

Posted 8/4/2020 | Open in new window

The following consultation update is the result of stakeholder suggestions gathered through an online Feedback Form, collected between July 7 and July 21, 2020 and summarized in the July 28 Feedback Report. The report themes have been summarized and along with a response to the suggestions that have been implemented. If a suggestion was not implemented, the reason is provided.

PSE also thanks Joni Bosh, Fred Huette and Amy Wheeless of Northwest Energy Coalition (NWEC) for meeting with PSE staff on Juy 29 to help further clarify their questions and suggestions.

Electric Vehicles – Demand Response Program

PSE received feedback from Brian Grunkemeyer and Rob Briggs (Vashon Climate Action Group) concerning the high levelized cost assumption of the DR program for electric vehicles and requested Cadmus to provide more details on their estimate.

Cadmus’ EV estimate of $300 from the Regional Technical Forum (RTF) study is reasonably close to the cost data that Brian provided on July 31, 2020 of $250 per participant. The other costs that are included in the $362 levelized cost are detailed in the table below:

 

Parameters

Units

Values

Notes

Setup Cost

$

DLC: $150,000

Assuming 1 FTE to set up the program.

O&M Cost

$ per year

DLC: $150,000

Assuming 1 FTE.

Equipment Cost

$ per new participant

$300

The Regional Technical Forum’s researched incremental equipment cost of networked 240V level 2 charger compared to non-networked level 2 charger is $287 (Shum 2019).

Marketing Cost

$ per new participant

DLC: $30

Assuming this product requires higher marketing cost than the BPA assumption (Cadmus 2018a) for DLC products: $25 per new participant.

Incentives (Annual)

$ per new participant

DLC: $25

In line with incentives for residential DLC space heat products.

Attrition

% of existing participants per year

5%

In line with BPA assumption (Cadmus 2018a) for DLC products.

Eligibility

% of segment/

36%

The number of EV owners is aligned with the study's assumptions for energy efficiency. The proportion of EV owners that already have a residential 240V AC level 2 charger (64%) is based on research by the Regional Technical Forum (Shum 2019).

Peak Load Impact

kW per participant (at meter)

0.34

Based on 2021 Plan Workbook "Inputs_Product_ResEVSEDLC-Winter" peak load impact assumption.

Available at: https://nwcouncil.app.box.com/s/osjwinvjiomgo7vd4uc75y16z3x9b32i/file/655868985770

Program Participation

% of eligible segment/end-use load

DLC: 25%

In line with assumptions for DLC products.

Event Participation

%

0.95

Based on 2021 Plan Workbook "Inputs_Product_ResEVSEDLC-Winter" event participation assumption.

Available at: https://nwcouncil.app.box.com/s/osjwinvjiomgo7vd4uc75y16z3x9b32i/file/655868985770

Transmission & Distribution Deferral Cost Update

PSE received feedback from Kyle Frankiewich (WUTC) and Fred Heutte (NWEC) requesting more details behind the numbers on slide 13: “Updates in 2021 CPA: T&D deferral benefit.” The costs that the Power Council is using in their 2021 Plan is significantly lower that the ones used in the 7th Plan . The Council updated its assumptions for the 2021 Plan: no new T&D development projects were included in the update, and for T&D upgrade projects, only capacity related costs were included. In past IRPs, PSE has used the Council’s T&D deferral numbers. Since the costs came down substantially in the Council’s 2021 plan, PSE decided to update their own system related costs. The PSE system estimates came close to the updated Power Council estimates, these were presented on slide 13 of the July 14 Webinar.

PSE reviewed projects going back to 2010 and included projects or portions of the projects that were related to the capacity upgrades on the T&D systems. The costs for reliability projects and routine O&M were excluded as conservation will not impact these costs.

Details of the projects used to estimate the new T&D deferral costs are in Appendix A of the full PDF.

Fuel Conversion from Gas to Electric

PSE received feedback from Kyle Frankiewich, Willard Westre, Rob Briggs and Court Olson concerning inclusion of measures or sensitivities to test the impact of converting some end uses from gas to electricity use. PSE has added fuel conversion as a sensitivity for further discussion with stakeholders at the August 11 webinar.

Distributed Solar pV

PSE received feedback from Fred Heutte (NWEC) and Kyle Frankiewich (WUTC) that the cost curve was not up to date, and that a sensitivity should be considered with a lower cost curve. Fred referenced to the recently released (July 2020) 2020 ATB data from NREL.

Cadmus had used the 2019 ATB data in their webinar slide, and has since updated the distributed solar pv market potential using the 2020 ATB data. As NWEC had suggested the costs are lower.

The figure below shows the results. The business as usual (BAU) case, which represents the current net metering program, updated with the 2020 MTB Moderate Cost forecast, now shows 24-year cumulative potential of 336 MW, which is about 10% higher than the program’s straight line projection of 300 MW, which was shown in the August 14 webinar.

Furthermore, the 2020 ATB Advanced Cost Decline forecast shows 24-year cumulative potential of 608 MW.

Based on these results and feedback from the stakeholders, PSE will:

  1. Update the business as usual (BAU) case to the 2020 ATB Moderate Cost forecast, and
  2. Replace the PSE incentive sensitivity with the 2020 ATB Advanced Cost decline as the sensitivity

There was also a request for historical acheivements to date with respect to PSE’s distributed solar pv program. The following is the historical data for all customer classes, including a breakdown by sector:

Total historical installations:

Year installed

Number of Systems

kW AC

kW DC

2000

1

4

1

2001

3

7

4

2002

7

15

12

2004

12

42

34

2005

8

34

30

2006

39

238

236

2007

85

438

409

2008

84

405

399

2009

157

818

814

2010

199

1,148

1,169

2011

227

1,447

1,532

2012

405

2,429

2,627

2013

572

3,913

4,123

2014

691

4,731

5,176

2015

1363

9,907

10,619

2016

1245

10,497

11,659

2017

1009

8,072

9,200

2018

1590

13,688

15,695

2019

1535

14,301

16,215

2020

605

6,189

6,859

Grand Total

9837

78,322

86,813

Installations by customer class:

Sector

Percent Share

Systems

kW AC

Commercial

5%

14%

Industrial

0.03%

0.17%

Residential

95%

85%


Equity in the IRP

PSE has scheduled a discussion with WUTC staff regarding an equity assessment in the IRP. Further details will be available by the end of September.

Load Forecast in the CPA

PSE received feedback from several stakeholders expressing concerns that the load forecast used to develop the CPA was a draft and what might happen if the final load forecast is considerably different. There was also a general perception that the changes in load forecast have a major impact on the conservation savings.

Changes in load forecast have a relatively minor impact on the total acehievable potential. The CPA will be updated with the final load forecast.

Demand Side Resource Sensitivities

PSE received feedback from several stakeholders to consider several sensitivities – see section below on “Summary of all updates” for details. All stakeholder suggested sensitivities have been added to the August 11 webinar for further discussion.

Summary of all updates

PSE appreciates the feedback provided by stakeholders. In summary, the following changes will be implemented:

  • Workbooks requested by NWEC – PSE is working with Cadmus to provide a measure details workbook for their review. This will be provided towards the end of August.
  • T&D deferral cost update details – details of the updated T&D numbers are presented in Appendix A below.
  • PSE will include a discussion and provide historical data on acheivements to date for PSE’s net metered distributed solar pV program in the demand side resources report.
  • Electric Vehicle levelized cost for the DR program is summarized on page 1 of this report.
  • Several sensitivities listed below were suggested by stakeholders. PSE will review the list of proposed portfolio sensitivities with stakeholders at the August 11, 2020 webinar and will seek feedback around the details of these sensitivities and additional sensitivities:
    • PSE will remove the PSE incentive and PSE ownership sensitivities and instead consider the one proposed by the stakeholders: sensitivity with a lower cost curve using the 2020 ATB Advanced scenario.
    • Accelerated DSR 6 year ramp for discretionary measures
    • Accelerated DSR 8 year ramp for discretionary measures
    • Non Energy impacts using EPA estimates
    • Social discount rate of 2.5% consistent with the social cost of carbon from the technical support document
    • Fuel conversion gas to electric
  • PSE will update the CPA with the final load forecast and a discussion of the changes will be provided in the demand side report.

[1] https://www.nwcouncil.org/sites/default/files/2019_0312_p3.pdf

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